Meteorologist told when October will finally become a warm month

In 50 years, October in Moscow could become a full-fledged warm autumn month if the current climate trend continues in the coming decades. About this told RBC meteorologist, co-founder of the project MeteoWeb Alexei Safonov.

“September and the first half of October gradually cease to correspond to the idea of autumn, which has developed in our old climatic norms. Moreover, in recent years, warm weather has increasingly persisted in the second half of October, he said.

According to Safonov, the warm autumn in Moscow and the Moscow region is no longer an accident, but a steady climatic trend. If it is maintained, the duration of the summer season may also increase.

The meteorologist stressed that the high temperatures in October are not unique in themselves. For example, on October 15, 16 and 18, 2018, the Moscow region recorded up to plus 18-19 degrees. However, now attention is drawn primarily to the duration of the warm period, and not individual temperature maximums.

This October may be among the warmest for the period of instrumental observations, Safonov said. At the same time, final conclusions can be made only in early November, after processing the data for the whole month.

Warm autumn does not exclude cold winter episodes, heavy snowfall and sharp temperature changes, the meteorologist added. According to him, to assess climate change, it is important to take into account the long-term dynamics of average temperature, the duration of warm periods, the amount of precipitation and the state of snow cover.