The doomsday equation: scientists have named the date of the death of mankind in 1960. Humanity will disappear on November 13
Until the estimated date of the “apocalypse”, calculated by scientists back in 1960, there is very little time left. However, do not be afraid: the famous “doomsday equation” was not a real prediction of the destruction of mankind, but a mathematical model with elements of satire.
In November 1960, the scientific journal Science published a paper by the physicist and cyberneticist Heinz von Förster, prepared jointly with Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot. The authors considered the hyperbolic growth of the Earth's population and built a mathematical model according to which the number of mankind under certain conditions should tend to infinity.
The calculations led the researchers to a specific date - November 13, 2026. It was later called the day of the expected end of the world, associated with the achievement of a critical population. But the point of the work was not to seriously assign a date of death to humanity: the model showed the consequences of extrapolating the rapid growth of population.
Therefore, to perceive the “doomsday equation” as a scientifically based prediction of the apocalypse is wrong. The real demographic situation turned out to be more complicated than the mathematical scheme, and the rate of population growth began to slow down over time.
Despite the humorous nature of the famous calculation, talk of a possible end of the world continues. At the same time, the real risks to civilization are associated not so much with overpopulation as with natural disasters and the activities of man himself.
Director of the Center for Planetary Protection Anatoly Zaitsev considers one of the most serious potential threats to the fall of a large asteroid to Earth. It is not always possible to detect a dangerous celestial body in advance, since much depends on its trajectory, size and observation conditions. Some objects can approach from the Sun, remaining invisible to Earth's tracking systems.
This is what happened to the Chelyabinsk meteorite, whose diameter is estimated at about 17-20 meters. It originated from the Sun and was discovered shortly before re-entry into the atmosphere, and its explosion caused significant damage and human injuries.
An even larger catastrophe could be a collision of the Earth with a large asteroid. One of the leading scientific hypotheses links the mass extinction of dinosaurs with the fall of a celestial body about 66 million years ago.
Among other scenarios of a global catastrophe, experts also discuss a possible eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano and nuclear war. However, the likelihood and possible consequences of such events vary, and no specific date can be given for any of them.
History knows a lot of cases when preachers, soothsayers and even supporters of various theories assigned humanity the exact date of death. People sometimes took such statements so seriously that they changed their lives, parted with their possessions, and prepared for events that never happened.
One of the most famous episodes was "The Great Disappointment" in the United States. The preacher William Miller claimed that on October 22, 1844, the second coming of Christ would take place. Thousands of his followers believed the prediction, and some sold their possessions and waited for the appointed day. When nothing happened, many of them experienced a severe spiritual crisis.
Another American preacher, Harold Camping, predicted the end of the world first on September 6, 1994, and later on May 21, 2011. Both dates passed without the promised apocalypse. Nevertheless, the story has received widespread publicity and is another example of how confident statements about the end of the world can attract attention and mislead people.
No less alarming was the date of December 21, 2012. Supporters of apocalyptic theories associated it with the end of one of the cycles of the Mayan calendar and assumed that this portends a global catastrophe. However, the calendar cycle simply ended, and no signs of the predicted end of the world appeared.
More recently, South African pastor Joshua Mlakela, who predicted the end of the world on October 12 or 13, 2026, caused a new wave of such talk. The dates have already passed, but the expected disaster has not occurred.
