Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026

The award ceremony for the best footballer “Golden ball” will be held on October 26. This will be the 70th ceremony, so it will be held for the first time in England, in the homeland of the first winner of the prize Stanley Matthews.

The event will be hosted by the London Palladium Theatre, the official part will begin at 23:00 GMT. Leading will be the world champion in the French national team Thierry Henry and British journalist Kate Scott.

In Russia, the ceremony can be seen in Okko.

Who is called the favorite in the fight for the Golden Ball bookies

Bookmakers call the striker of England and Bayern Munich Harry Kane the main contender for the Golden Ball. Quotations on average fluctuate in the area of 1.5-1.6.

Kane became the top scorer of the 2025/26 season. On his account, taking into account the national team 73 goals is the second indicator in the XXI century. Only Messi scored more during the season - 82 goals (2011/12).

The leader of Spain and Barcelona Lamine Yamal is second in the list of favorites – 2.6-2.8.

He had a great season. He was the leader of Barcelona with which he won two trophies. With a noticeable margin, he became the team's top scorer - 25 goals, 17 assists in 54 matches.

At the age of 19, Yamal has established himself as one of the most spectacular players in the world. In the twenty-first century, no player at such an early age had such an impact on the game of a top club. At the same time, Yamal at the victorious World Cup 2026 showed that he was ready to perform rough work for the sake of a team result.

He won almost every trophies possible. He does not have only the title of winner of the Champions League and the club world championship.

Yamal is Kane’s only real competitor, according to bookies.

For the striker of France and Real Madrid Kylian Mbappe, the odds start at 21.

Mbappe became the top scorer of all the major tournaments in which he participated - the World Cup (10), the Champions League (15) and the Spanish Championship (25). He became the first two top scorer of the world championships (2022, 2026).

Quotes for the captain of the national team of Argentina and Inter Miami Lionel Messi start at 23.

Messi for the second time in a row reached the final of the world Cup with Argentina. He was the real leader of the team, with eight goals, finishing the tournament second in the list of top scorers of the World Cup-2026.

He also became the second in the list of the best players of the world Cup. Although experts expected that Messi would receive the prize to the most valuable player, which is taken into account when presenting the Golden Ball. He is the only two-time winner of the prize for the best player of the world Cup.

Fifth in the list of applicants for bookmakers is the owner of the Golden Ball 2024 Rodri: the odds start from 40.

Rodri was the leader and captain of the Spanish national team in the winning World Cup. He was recognized as the best player of the World Cup-2026.

Who will win the poll award

The Athletic surveyed 100 people from the world of football. Among them are former and current players, coaches, sports directors, club presidents, scouts, other team leaders from the top 5 leagues. They were asked to choose the top 10 candidates for the award. The system of accruing points is similar to the Golden Ball: 15 were given for the first place, then in descending order, for the 10th - 1 point.

In this poll, Kane won by a solid margin - 1103 points (39 respondents put him in first place), followed by Yamal - 991 points (29), Mbappe - 728 points (18).

ESPN conducted an international survey of 20 journalists from all over the world. And here Kane took first place by a wide margin. He received half the votes for the first place, but, remarkably, only one of the other journalists put him in second place. Five journalists (all of them from Spanish-speaking countries) Kane did not enter the top 3, while the Guatemalan did not include the Englishman even in the top 5, where almost all the places he took Spanish-speaking footballers and players of the Spanish championship.

Only one journalist put Yamal in the first place. The Spaniard won 11 second places. The third in the survey was again Mbappe (the first place he was put by four journalists, the second – two, the third – five).

The largest survey was conducted by the Spanish Marca – 226 people, including journalists from around the world, former footballers and coaches. Respondents were required to choose the top 15: 30 points were awarded for the first place, 25 for the second, 23 for the third, etc.

Kane (3962 points) again became the first, but with a minimum margin from Yamal (3937). The usual third place was taken by Mbappe (3440).

Kane leads in most ratings and polls of leading media and statistical services. However, in the twenty-first century, the favorites ended up without a prize. This has happened twice in the last five years.

How to determine the winner of the Golden ball

The winner of the Golden Ball will be determined by the results of the survey, which ended on September 28. The survey involved 100 journalists, one from each of the top 100 countries in the FIFA ranking.

Each jury member selects ten players in descending order of merit from the list of 30 nominees compiled by the editors of France Football and L'Équipe, the best member of the jury of the previous convocation (in 2026 - a representative of Costa Rica), as well as UEFA Ambassadors Luis Figo (for the men's award) and Nadine Kessler (for the women's award). Ten selected players receive the following points: 15, 12, 10, 8, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 respectively. The "Golden Ball" is received by the player who scored the maximum number of points.

For what achievements the Golden Ball is awarded

The editor-in-chief of France Football, Vincent Garcia, noted that when determining the winner, team trophies take a back seat.

“Usually we evaluate the performances of players throughout the season – and first of all we evaluate individual results, not team achievements or trophies won,” says Garcia. This year it is difficult to evaluate, because you can take the example of Kvaratskhelia, who had a great second half of the season with PSG, but did not play at the World Cup (because Georgia did not qualify). But a Ballon d'Or winner doesn't automatically become a world champion with his national team. Different factors are taken into account.”.

UEFA, with whom France Football is hosting the ceremony, said the Ballon d'Or is awarded to the best footballer and the best footballer in the world, regardless of which leagues they play in or which countries they represent.

The Ballon d'Or is awarded based on three main criteria:

individual performances, decisive and impressive character; team performances and achievements; class and fair play.