Shares of Magnit are at their highest since June. What happens next

Shares of the retailer Magnit (MGNT) jumped by 5% at auction on November 10 and at its peak reached 2077 per share. This is the highest level since June 22 of this year.

Quotes of the company are growing for the fourth day in a row and have already added 11.04% compared to the level before the close of trading on Friday. And from a multi-year low on August 27, shares have risen nearly 44 percent.

Causes of growth

As noted by senior analyst of the investment company Ricom-Trust Valery Popova, a noticeable rise in quotations occurs in the absence of corporate news. According to her, the current picture allows us to talk about the predominantly speculative nature of the price movement.

At the same time, the analyst believes that the key driver remains the agenda of the meeting of the Board of Directors of November 8, where decisions were considered regarding the subsidiary structure of Magnit - JSC Thander. This “daughter” is involved in the repo scheme: a package of 3.8 million shares was issued through it, Popov draws attention. Return of securities to the balance sheet will lead to the fact that the total quasi-treasury share will exceed 30%, which by law obliges the company to send an offer to minority shareholders.

REPO (Repurchase Agreement, “repurchase agreement”) is a transaction of sale of securities with an obligation to redeem them at a certain time at a predetermined price. With the help of a repo contract, the seller gets the opportunity to quickly borrow money.

In October 2023, a subsidiary of Magnit signed a repo agreement for 3.8 million shares of the retailer. It was concluded until October 2, 2024. The company extended it until October 2, 2025, and then for another year, until October 2, 2026.

On September 28, it was reported that the “daughter” extended the repo contract until April 2, 2027. A new extension of the repo agreement until April 2, 2027 means that the company will not have any obligations to buy back shares from investors, including with a premium.

On the contrary, Alexey Golovinov, chief analyst for financial markets at Vector Capital, considers the version of the return of shares of Magnit in connection with the recent extension of the transaction for six months doubtful.

“What is more interesting is the version that now runs on the market: one major professional participant closes his own short position in Magnit shares.” In combination with the extremely low price and the presence of shorts, this leads to a strong withdrawal of securities, which we are seeing right now, he explains the dynamics of stocks.

Popova also adds that it is not necessary to discount the technical factor: overcoming the mark of ,2000 - a level that for about a year was strongly resisted - in itself provoked a wave of technical purchases and stop orders of shortists.

As the analyst of “Digital broker” Ivan Efanov emphasizes, in addition to “Magnit”, there are strong movements in the outsiders of the market, in particular in the shares of “Airplane”, VK and “M.video”. “This can be called a classic removal of oversold paper,” he said.

What will happen to Magnit shares next: expert forecasts

According to the analyst, the fundamental indicators of Magnit shares remain weak: in the first half of 2026, the company recorded a loss, and the volume of debt increased.

The net loss of Magnit Group under IFRS in the first half of 2026 amounted to 9.5 billion against net profit 154.5 million a year earlier. Group revenue increased by 12.8%, to овая1.89 trillion, gross profit by 18%, to овая439.9 billion. At the same time, financial expenses increased by 45.3% to .116.1 billion.

On the eve of the publication of the reports, on August 27, the shares of Magnit on the Moscow Exchange fell to a minimum since August 2009.

According to analysts of Solid Investments, Magnit remains the story of a possible recovery. However, buying stocks only because of low multipliers is premature: it is more important to see a steady net profit and an improvement in the debt situation.

Efanov also expects moderately positive results from Magnit for the second half of the year. “Here and the growth of food inflation should help and reduce capital expenditures after the completion of the active phase of investing in new discoveries,” he believes.

At the same time, according to Popova, dividends are not paid, and in the foreseeable future their appearance is unlikely. Against this background, a significant further increase in quotations looks unfounded, she believes.