What are the chances of Russia to participate in the World Cup, which threatens Canada and IIHF for boycott

At the end of October, the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) admitted Russian hockey teams to international competitions after a four-year suspension due to a military operation in Ukraine.

But the future of the teams remains uncertain due to the position of other participants and organizers of the World Youth Hockey Championship, which could be Russia’s first major competition since its return.

The Youth Hockey World Championships will be held from December 26, 2026 to January 5, 2027 in Edmonton and Red Deer (Canada).

RBC Sport answers the main questions on the admission of the Russian team to the youth world Cup in Canada.

Under what conditions can Russia participate

The International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) faces a difficult choice, as each of the possible scenarios bears a loss of reputation, financial or sports. Lawyers and experts agree that there is no easy way.

Russia can take part only if the tournament is transferred to a country ready to host Russian athletes. This is achieved by the Russian Hockey Federation (FHR).

The Chairman of the bar “Nikolskaya Consulting” Alexey Panich in conversation with “RBC Sport” said that Russia should seek from IIHF disciplinary measures against the Ice Hockey Federation of Canada, including the transfer of the championship.

However, if the championship is still held in Canada, the IIHF may cite reasons beyond its control for the inability to participate. The weakness of this position is that, theoretically, the IIHF could postpone the tournament, but the question remains whether such a move is realistic in such a short time.

Almost all the countries that have hosted the World Cup in the last 15 years have already refused to play against the Russian national team. It is logical to expect their governments to deny entry to our hockey players. The exception could be Slovakia, Panic said.

Can CAS oblige Canada to issue visas to Russian hockey players

The CAS decision applies only to sports organizations. The Canadian authorities have already announced that Russian players will not be allowed to participate in the tournament. A number of young Russian players have Canadian visas as they compete in the local junior league. But Canadian Sports Minister Adam van Cooverden said the country will take measures to prevent Russian athletes and officials from entering the World Cup, regardless of whether they have visas.

As Dick Pound, a sports lawyer and former head of WADA, noted in an interview with CBC Sports, “CAS does not have the authority to dictate which athletes Canada lets into its territory.” If the IIHF tries to pressure Hockey Canada, he said, the answer would be simple: "We're a sports organization." We do not decide who can obtain visas to enter Canada.”.

What threatens IIHF for failure to comply with the CAS decision

At the moment, it is premature to talk about non-compliance with the CAS decision by the IIHF. According to Panich, the IIHF will allow Russian teams to participate in tournaments, but their actual presence will be impossible due to the position of the host countries, as in the case of Canada.

"In any case, the CAS has no mechanism to enforce its decisions," the lawyer said.

Can the IOC recommend no competition in Canada

In 2025, Indonesia denied Israeli gymnasts entry to the World Cup. In response, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) recommended that international federations refrain from hosting competitions in Indonesia until its government guarantees access to all athletes.

If the IOC is consistent, then Canada should face the same conditions. "But this is a recommendation, not a binding act, and the question of whether the IOC will apply it to Canada is more of a political than a legal one," Panich said.

Is there a risk of sanctions for the IIHF if it refuses to move the tournament to another country

The FHR may re-claim CAS for inaction by the IIHF. However, it will be difficult to win it, since it will have to prove that the organization had a real opportunity to move the World Cup to another country in such a short time.

"As a result, everything will be decided in the high offices of the IIHF and the IOC," Panich said. According to him, Russia needs to seek from the organizations a tough position on transferring the competitions to “more neutral” countries, but the range of such for hockey is extremely limited.

The head of sports practice of the legal group Clover Consult, Anna Antseliovich, also told RBC Sport that the IIHF would not face serious direct consequences if it did hold the tournament in Canada. The FHR can only challenge the IIHF’s actions in Swiss courts, pointing to discrimination and violation of the principle of non-discrimination.

Will the IIHF try to ban Russia again

Initially, the IIHF suspended Russia due to a “security threat”. CAS considered this evidence insufficient. If the IIHF finds another reason - for example, a threat to the integrity of the tournament - it will be a new decision, and it can only be challenged through a new lawsuit. This will allow IIHF to buy time to host the 2026/27 season and consider regulatory amendments.

Finnish lawyers Olli Rauste and Matti Huhtamäki point to precedent in curling. There, the team was excluded if its participation threatened the competition (boycotts, organizational chaos). And CAS found it legal.

“IIHF can build on these existing rules and, because of the countries that refused, also on changed circumstances. The IIHF can state that this makes the proper organization of the competition impossible. This is the basis for excluding Russia, Hukhtamäki told Yle.

At the same time, according to Panich, the IIHF is unlikely to re-suspend Russia on another basis amid visa restrictions from host countries.

What is the best choice for IIHF

The most likely scenario is that the IIHF will not go into direct conflict and force Canada to issue visas. The federation does not have such powers.

Therefore, the IIHF is likely to choose a workaround. Or make a new decision on the suspension of Russia because of the “threat to the integrity of the tournament” – so you can save face and avoid open confrontation with CAS. Or slow down admission at the organizational level. As Antseliovich noted, even in the presence of the CAS verdict, the federation is able to create procedural obstacles, and the matter may simply not reach a new solution.

At the same time, CAS does not control the implementation of its decisions and cannot directly force the IIHF to comply with them, Antseliovich explained. But if international sports organisations stop following CAS rulings, it would "put at risk the entire existing dispute resolution system in sport.".

None of these paths guarantee success. The Russian side can challenge the new decision in CAS, and the trial cycle will continue.