Sales of new cars in Russia fell for the second consecutive month

Sales of new passenger cars in Russia in September decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, to 115.1 thousand cars, follows from the data of AUTOSTAT. The market is shrinking for the second month in a row - in August, sales decreased by 6.5%, amounting to 114.3 thousand cars.

But in the nine months of 2026, the Russian market of new passenger cars grew by 7.2%, to 960.1 thousand cars. Growth rates continue to slow – in January-August, sales grew by 9.3% year-on-year. However, in September, the market added 0.7% to August in absolute terms.

The decline in sales in August and September is largely due to the high base of last year, according to experts interviewed by RBC.

In August-September 2025, the market formed an increased demand before changing the rules for calculating the recycling fee. The new method was originally supposed to come into force on November 1, later the authorities postponed the innovation until December 1.

Recycling fee is a one-time payment that is charged to importers, manufacturers or buyers of motor vehicles for the recycling of cars after their operation. It was introduced in Russia in 2012.

From December 1, 2025, the engine power was taken into account when calculating the fee for passenger cars. For citizens who import cars with a capacity of up to 160 horsepower for personal use, preferential recycling coefficients have been preserved (3.4 thousand rubles for a new car and 5.2 thousand rubles for cars older than three years). Cars with a more powerful engine came under commercial tariffs.

In 2026, the scrap collection for a new car with an engine of 1-2 liters and a capacity of 160-190 hp is 900 thousand rubles, and for cars of the same category with a capacity of over 490 hp - more than 3.2 million rubles.

In August-September last year, there was a rush of demand in anticipation of an increase in the utilization fee. This has created a high base for comparison this year, says Anton Rumyantsev, Head of Transport and Logistics Practice Projects at Strategy Partners. According to him, the dynamics of September was also affected by the reduction of opportunities for state support of demand.

At the end of September 2026, the Ministry of Industry and Trade suspended programs of preferential car loans and leasing after early development of budget limits. Since the beginning of the year, more than 123 thousand cars were sold under the program of concessional lending and 54.8 thousand under the program of preferential leasing.

What will happen to car loans in the new budget cycle

In the published draft federal budget for 2027-2029, the amount of financing of preferential car loans is significantly lower than the current parameters. For 2027 and 2028, 7 billion rubles are provided annually against 20 billion rubles laid for each of these years in the current budget. By 2029, the financing of the program, on the contrary, is expected to increase to 24.7 billion rubles.

The financing of preferential autoleasing has also been reduced; the draft budget provides for 17.1 billion rubles in 2027 and 14.3 billion rubles in 2028 against 37.1 billion and 37.2 billion rubles, respectively, in the current budget. For 2029 so far laid 4 billion rubles.

The fact that the dynamics of the second half of the year is affected by the effect of a high base last year, agrees senior analyst of the sector TMT "Eyler" Vladimir Bespalov. According to him, the demand could also be affected by the situation on the fuel market, as a result of which some potential buyers could postpone the purchase of a car.

Another factor determining the dynamics of the market remains the cost of lending, notes partner and head of the automotive practice Kept Stanislav Zingirevich. According to him, insufficient reduction of the key rate limits the ability of buyers to buy cars on credit.

What's happening in the market

In September, Lada remained the market leader with sales of 28.4 thousand cars (+7.6% in annual terms) and a share of 24.7%. The second place was taken by Haval – 13.4 thousand cars (-19.6%, market share – 13.3%), the third – by the Tenet brand, whose sales amounted to 12.4 thousand cars (an increase of 4.7 times, a share of 10.5%).

The top 10 also included Geely - 6.3 thousand cars, Changan - 6.1 thousand, Belgee - 4.9 thousand, Mazda, Toyota and Jetour - about 3.2 thousand cars, and Jeland - 2.6 thousand.

The most noticeable declines among major Chinese brands were shown by Geely and Belgee, their sales decreased by 35.7 and 41.8%, respectively. At the same time, sales of Tenet grew 4.7 times year-on-year, and the Japanese Mazda - 3.8 times. In both cases, a low base of comparison has a significant impact.

In terms of the model range, the market leadership was retained by Lada Granta, sales of which amounted to 10.8 thousand cars (-9.3% year-on-year). Among crossovers and SUVs, the first place was taken by Tenet T7 with 6.4 thousand cars (an increase of five times), the second - Haval Jolion with 5.7 thousand. (-7.6%).

The top five best-selling models also included Lada Vesta - 5.4 thousand cars (-10.2%) and Tenet T4L - 4.4 thousand. This was followed by Lada Niva Travel – 3.4 thousand (+42%), Niva Legend – 3.2 thousand (+ 6.1%), Lada Iskra – 3.2 thousand (an increase of 33.5 times at a low base), Belgee X50 – about 3 thousand and Mazda CX-5 – 2.9 thousand (an increase of four times).

According to the results of nine months, Lada, Geely, Changan and Jetour maintain negative dynamics among major brands. Tenet over the same period (the brand entered the Russian market almost a year ago, in August 2025) increased sales almost 37 times.

What to expect before the end of the year

Despite the decline in sales in the last two months, experts expect the market to end the year with positive dynamics.

Rumyantsev expects sales of at least 1.5 million new passenger cars by the end of 2026, which corresponds to an increase of about 10-15%.

Kept’s baseline forecast is significantly lower at 1.35-1.4 million vehicles. Zingirevich expects further normalization of demand without surges, increased competition between Chinese brands, which will be accompanied by an expansion of price and financial programs to stimulate demand, as well as market consolidation around the largest players. According to him, dealers can more actively reduce prices and increase the volume of discounts in the last months of the year to fulfill sales plans. In addition, some buyers will seek to have time to buy a car before the price increase due to the annual increase in the scrap collection.

From January 1, 2027, recycling fee rates will be indexed by another 10-20% depending on the type of vehicle under the previously approved indexation.

Bespalov estimates sales in 2026 in the range of 1.33-1.39 million cars, which corresponds to market growth in the range from zero to 5%. According to Euler, given the current market slowdown, the lower limit of this range becomes more likely.