China to tighten rules on car exports: which brands will be at risk

From 2027, when issuing export licenses, Chinese manufacturers will need to document the presence of foreign service centers and their ability to service cars, the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC reports. According to these rules, you will need to provide contracts with service points or documents on the availability of your own network, information on repair permits, equipment, qualifications of employees and logistics of spare parts.

The manufacturer will have to confirm the presence of foreign service points. To do this, you will need a set of documents: a contract with the service or a statement about your own network, a certificate of the right to repair, a description of repair opportunities, photos of premises, information about equipment and personnel qualifications, as well as data on the logistics of spare parts. For the first class manufacturer, at least 50 such points must be confirmed.

The new rules may complicate the supply to Russia of certain Chinese brands and cars of global brands produced in China. How the new rules can change the work of importers, to what extent they will affect the Russian market and whether prices will rise.

How much the Russian car industry depends on China

If in 2022, Chinese brands occupied 19% of the market of new passenger cars, then in 2023-2025 their share exceeded half (peak - 58% in 2024). In the first half of 2026, it decreased to 41%, follows from the data of “AUTOSTAT”. One of the reasons for the decline is the emergence of new local brands based on Chinese models.

In particular, the Russian holding AGR (owns the former Volkswagen plants in Kaluga and GM in St. Petersburg) together with the Chinese partner Defetoo launched several local brands: Tenet (based on Chery models) and Jeland (based on the sub-brands Jaecoo and OMODA, the production of these crossovers is established near St. Petersburg).

But the decrease in the share of Chinese brands directly does not mean a decrease in the dependence of the Russian market on the Chinese automotive industry. According to estimates of the director of AUTOSTAT Sergey Tselikov, in the first quarter of 2026 purely Chinese brands sold in Russia a little more than 107 thousand cars, which is 40.4% of the market. Almost 48 thousand cars accounted for Russian brands, which are assembled from Chinese components (including Tenet, Evolute, Moskvich, Xcite, Sollers), and the Belarusian Belgee - 18.1% of the market. Nearly 27,000 cars from global brands including Toyota, Mazda, Volkswagen, BMW and Audi were assembled in Chinese factories, representing 10.2% of the market.

Of the 265,000 new passenger cars sold in Russia in the first quarter, 182,000, or 68.7 percent, accounted for cars associated with the Chinese automotive industry, Tselikov estimated. A year earlier, their share occupied 63.2% of the market, and the number of such cars in physical terms increased by 17%.

At the same time, the share of localized production is growing. According to AUTOSTAT, the total share of the Russian brands Tenet and Solaris, produced at the former enterprises of Volkswagen and Hyundai, in January-April was 12.4% of the market, or 47.4 thousand cars. In April, they accounted for 12.2% of sales.

What cars are bought in Russia

In September, Lada remained the market leader with sales of 28.4 thousand units (+7.6% in annual terms) and a share of 24.7%. The second place was taken by Haval – 13.4 thousand (-19.6%, market share – 13.3%), the third – by the Tenet brand, whose sales amounted to 12.4 thousand cars (an increase of 4.7 times, a share of 10.5%).

The top 10 also included Geely - 6.3 thousand cars, Changan - 6.1 thousand, Belgee - 4.9 thousand, Mazda, Toyota and Jetour - about 3.2 thousand cars, and Jeland - 2.6 thousand.

Another important channel for the market is alternative imports. According to Sergey Tselikov, in January-August 2026, 47.8 thousand new passenger cars were imported from Kyrgyzstan to Russia - 156% more than a year earlier. More than 80% of them were produced in China. Among the most popular models were the Toyota RAV4, Toyota Highlander, Audi Q5, Toyota Camry and Volkswagen Tiguan.

What will change in car exports from China

Partner and head of the Asian initiative SL LEGAL Georgy Danelia and junior lawyer of the company Ekaterina Harina note that the system of export regulation of car supplies is not new: the basic rules were established by the notification of the Chinese authorities No. 318 of 2012. The requirement for foreign service infrastructure also existed before. According to lawyers, the new notice extends this approach to 2027, but tightens documentary evidence of the presence of service points.

When issuing the right to export, the availability of service infrastructure in general, and not necessarily in a particular destination country, is taken into account. The rules apply to both Chinese brands and cars of European, Japanese, American and Korean brands produced in China.

According to Danelia and Harina, the notification No. 404 should not significantly change the total volume of exports of cars from China to Russia, although it may create temporary difficulties for individual exporters. New cars of non-Chinese brands already face other restrictions, but they are bypassed. For example, this can be done by selling a car after 180 days in China (then it is considered used even at zero mileage) or designing them as converted cars.

What kind of cars are at risk

Vladislav Varshavsky, managing partner of Warsaw & Partners, believes that there will be no significant changes for large Chinese manufacturers. But mid- and small-level companies that cannot confirm the presence of a real service infrastructure can be affected. A separate risk arises for cars of foreign brands made in China. Due to the withdrawal of these companies from Russia, their supplies directly from China may not be possible, and such cars will be sent to Russia through third countries where the necessary service infrastructure is available.

The main vulnerability for the Russian market, according to Konstantin Pozdnyakov, adviser to the rector of the RSSU, are cars of brands that have officially left Russia: they do not have the opportunity to confirm the required service infrastructure. In this case, the exporter will not be able to collect the necessary package of documents, the availability of such machines on the Russian market will decrease, and their cost and maintenance costs may increase.

Yuri Blinov, marketing director of Avilon dealer network, noted that a number of brands do not supply new cars to Russia, but their infrastructure continues to work. For example, Toyota has 94 dealerships, retains official service, customer support, service companies and spare parts supplies. But “this does not mean that Toyota will give the Chinese exporter a document allowing the supply from China to Russia,” he said.

About the risks for this category says the managing partner of IPM Consulting Vadim Tedeev. According to him, for the Chinese brands Haval, Geely, Changan officially represented in Russia, the new requirements should not create problems due to existing dealer and service networks. At risk are brands that are sold in Russia through parallel imports, such as Xiaomi and Zeekr.

How the new rules will affect prices and supply

The President of the Association of Exporters and Importers Arthur Leer confirms that a significant part of cars enter Russia through the CIS countries, primarily Kyrgyzstan and Belarus. The new requirements will require the restructuring of individual logistics chains, but the market will be able to adapt.

The supply of models directly affected by the new requirements may be reduced. Operations Director of the dealer of premium Chinese automotive brands “Avtoveito” Vasily Mayorov expects that prices at the initial stage can grow by 5-10%, and with a shortage of individual models will be even higher.

In the long term, the market will change rather than shrink, there may be fewer accidental deliveries and more large importers, and requirements for service and availability of parts will continue to grow.

What risks arise for buyers

The main risk arises when the car is already paid for, but not yet taken out of China. If the exporter does not obtain the necessary license, the car can remain in China indefinitely. According to Tedeev, in such a situation, contractual risks may arise: the intermediary may try to refer to the refusal to issue an export license as a force majeure circumstance.

Arbitration Manager, Advisor to the law firm “Right Bank” Anna Zakharova also expects a reduction in supply and growth in the cost of cars. Additional costs, according to her, may arise due to longer checks of export documents, increased shelf life of machines and increased logistics costs.

Buyers who purchase a car through an intermediary under an agency agreement, Tedeev recommends prescribing the conditions in case of impossibility of exporting the car: refund terms, penalty and the procedure for terminating the contract.

Varshavsky believes that regardless of the import scheme, it is important for the buyer to fully pay customs duties and recycling fees in accordance with the purpose of importation.

According to Danelia and Harina, if the car was legally exported from China with an export license, the requirements for service infrastructure do not create additional legal or customs risks for it in Russia. The new rules may affect Russian imports indirectly. Lawyers also pay attention to the correctness of the declared value of the car when obtaining an export license. If a different price is declared in Russia, it may attract the attention of customs authorities.

If a car that does not fall under the new requirements of the PRC, still somehow managed to take out of China and deliver to Russia, the violation of Chinese export restrictions should not be an obstacle to its registration in the traffic police, says lawyer Dmitry Dugin.