Restaurants go in the red: how much will it cost to eat out of the house

According to Kontur.Focus, as of October 1, there were 221.6 thousand active catering organizations in Russia. However, the number of registrations does not reflect the real situation: according to Infoline estimates, in July the number of catering establishments decreased by 7.8% year-on-year. This is the first decline since 2022. Experts attribute what is happening simultaneously with rising costs, changing consumer behavior and tightening tax controls.

Member of the Council of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation for Financial Market and Investments Anna Vovk estimates a decrease in demand of about 20% compared to last year. In her opinion, Russians have become more cautious to spend money on optional purchases due to the reduction in real income. “Now, not everyone can turn to fast food, that is, real incomes of the population have decreased, so people buy either ready-made food in supermarkets, in the cooking department, or in frozen form, and already eat it,” the expert notes.

Consumers are not so much abandoning food outside the home as changing habits. B&C Agency partner Artem Romanyuk draws attention to the fact that for eight months of 2026, the number of orders in cafes and restaurants decreased by 3% year-on-year, while sales increased by 3%. Everyday lunches are increasingly giving way to ready-made food from shops, and restaurants remain for meetings and special occasions. According to the forecast of Infoline, the market of ready-made food by the end of the year can grow by almost 18%, to 1.32 trillion rubles. Thus, part of the demand is redistributed between catering and retail.

Economist Viktor Mangazeev warns against generalizations: without comparable data, it is impossible to determine exactly how much demand has decreased in all segments of catering, and what share of spending has moved to stores. "It's important to distinguish between giving up meals and changing habits: a person can continue to go to cafes, but less often, choose more affordable meals and reduce order," he says.

The number of budgetary institutions is declining the most. According to Romanyuk, in July, the number of bakeries decreased by 13%, fast food outlets - by 11.8%, coffee houses "to take out" - by more than 10%. These formats have been actively developing in recent years, and now some operators are getting rid of redundant points. At the same time, 455 establishments with boarding halls opened in Moscow from January to June, and about 330 closed. “This is the closure of redundant outlets, not the disappearance of restaurants as a class,” he said.

Mass withdrawal of market participants will not necessarily lead to a sharp rise in the price of restaurant dishes. According to the service "Chek Index", in January-August the number of checks in catering increased by 2%, but in restaurants and bars decreased by 4%. At the same time, according to Rosstat, the turnover of the industry increased by 16.6%, to almost 4 trillion rubles. The average check, according to Romanyuk, for the year increased by 7%, to 1.6 thousand rubles.

The expert believes that competition with ready-made food and the sensitivity of consumers to the price will restrain further rise in price. Rather, institutions will optimize costs, reduce menus and areas, carefully calculate the cost of meals. Anna Vovk also points to the dependence of prices on taxes, utilities, wages, rent and the cost of products. “Price is a key factor that attracts consumers to a particular institution,” she emphasizes.

Mangazeev admits different scenarios of the situation: some cafes will revise prices, others will reduce portions or offer dining sets. “It is impossible to name a single percentage of the rise in price,” the economist says. The average check can increase not only due to rising prices, but also due to changes in the composition of the order.

Will it turn into a service for the wealthy? Romanyuk believes that the market, on the contrary, is looking for affordable formats between a restaurant and fast food. Anna Vovk believes that people will not completely abandon visiting establishments: “I think that consumers will give up this habit in the last place.” Going to a restaurant retains emotional value, she said, although it may be less frequent. Mangazeev sees the main risk not only in the rise in prices, but also in the reduction of the choice of a suitable institution near home or work.