People who leave voluntarily are no longer detained: conditions on the labor market are changing in favor of employers

It seems that the practice of contropherics is gradually exhausting itself: many companies no longer try to keep the employee who is expected in another organization by raising wages (or improving working conditions). Established in 2024-2025, the trend is clearly weakening. For example, 17% of organizations respond to each application for dismissal at their own request. In 2024, it was 25%. According to the authors of the study, only over the past year, vacancies have decreased by 18%, while resumes have increased by 32%. At the same time, the acute problem of the shortage of qualified personnel is not reduced. According to 93% of employers, they lack the necessary skills of applicants.

We asked experts what the current process says, whether it will intensify, what are the advantages for the labor market, and what are the risks.

Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Global:

I think this trend will continue in the coming months as companies cut costs and take a more cautious approach to hiring new employees. However, it will not continue indefinitely. As economic activity recovers and labor demand increases, competition for skilled workers will intensify again. Therefore, we are talking about a change in the situation on the labor market, rather than about the final rejection of employers from the practice of counteroffers.

In general, the sphere of employment is gradually turning towards the employer. The main reason is the slowdown in the economy, high credit rates and, as a result, a decrease in business investment activity. At the same time, the personnel problem remains. Companies have begun to hire less, but there is still a shortage of qualified specialists, especially in industry, construction and technical professions. That is, the shortage of personnel is weakening primarily due to a decrease in demand for workers, and not because there are more needed specialists.

The main advantage is the actual termination of the salary race, which in recent years has increased business costs and accelerated inflation. Employers will be able to plan the payroll fund more rationally, and salary increases will be more dependent on qualifications and work results. However, companies can start to save on really valuable employees, losing specialists who will be difficult and expensive to replace. In addition, the weakening of competition for workers is fraught with a slowdown in the growth of real wages and a decrease in consumer demand. This will be an additional constraint on the economy.”.

Alexey Zubets, Director of the Center for Social Economics Research:

“There is no wave of layoffs in Russia today. But if a person leaves at his own will, why try to keep him? Moreover, if he is not a qualified specialist, his value is not too great, and it is easy to find a replacement for him. Another thing is when it comes to a key employee with indispensable professional skills. That's when they'll fight for him. However, the situation varies greatly by sector, for example, in the classic catering, which is now on the decline (restaurants, cafes), there is a noticeable reduction in staff. The same is true of the hotel business, especially in the outback, as the flow of domestic tourism has fallen due to rising service prices and the gasoline crisis. But in trade or, especially, at the enterprises of the military-industrial complex, people are held to the last.

Employers invariably require skilled personnel who play a key role in production, their work will always be well paid. And there are not very many such people, especially representatives of working professions (tokari, millers, welders), a maximum of 15-20% of the total number of applicants. There is no difficulty in finding a suitable job.”.