“SberInvestments” unplannedly changed the top shares after the project of the Ministry of Finance

The material is purely informative and does not contain individual investment recommendations.

Analysts of SberInvestment have updated the list of promising shares on the Russian stock market. Experts added to the top shares of LUKOIL. Papers "Rusal", "Norilsk Nickel" and "Rosneft" left the selection.

The changes in the selection occurred after the Ministry of Finance proposed to introduce a tax on additional incomes of individual mining and metallurgical companies as part of the budget package for 2027-2029. The rate may amount to 30% of the income received in 2026 due to the growth of world prices in ruble terms relative to the level of 2025.

In the spring, the source of RBC reported that the decision to introduce a windfall tax by the end of 2025 has not yet been adopted and is being discussed at the level of the government and the presidential administration. The relevant departments were instructed to work out a proposal to introduce such a tax at a rate of 20%. The Ministry of Finance then admitted the possibility of returning to the discussion of the tax on superprofits in the autumn within the budget cycle.

The superprofit tax was introduced in the summer of 2023. In January 2024, the Ministry of Finance estimated tax revenues from large companies at 318.8 billion. In 2025, this tax was not levied.

According to the analyst of “SberInvestment” Anton Artamoshkin, producers of non-ferrous metals and fertilizers may fall under the initiative, and a separate rate of 20% is proposed for gold mining companies. While this proposal: the final list of companies and calculation parameters may still change, he adds.

For Norilsk Nickel (GMKN), the new tax creates the risk of additional cash outflow, explained in SberInvestments. This could reduce a company’s free cash flow and worsen its dividend growth prospects. Rusal (RUAL) does not pay dividends, but owns a large stake in Norilsk Nickel. Therefore, a decrease in payments from the MMC would mean a smaller inflow of funds for Rusal itself. Against this background, analysts excluded the papers of both companies from the collection.

In August, the board of directors of Norilsk Nickel recommended paying dividends for the first time in three years. According to the results of the first half of 2026, the payment may be ия1.85 per share. Despite the small size of the announced payments, the market has raised hopes for regular payments in the future.

In 2023, the company paid out цию915.33 per share to a split of 100 to 1 in nine months. After splitting, such a payment would be а9.15 per share.

As for oil companies, SberInvestments believes that Rosneft (ROSN) retains a small growth potential, while analysts see a more noticeable upside for LUKOIL (LKOH) shares. In this regard, the shares of the first company were replaced by the second. Additional support for quotes can be expected dividend payments at the end of the year.

On August 28, LUKOIL presented financial results under IFRS for the first half of 2026:

revenue for the first half of 2026 increased by 8%, to ие 2.06 trillion; net profit increased by 52.5%, to ие440.1 billion; net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.5 times, to ие430.9 billion.

The company has significantly recovered its financial performance after a weak 2025. Against this background, experts believe that as a result, the oil producer can pay dividends with double-digit yields in six months.

Top shares of the Russian stock market, taking into account the latest update:

“T-Technologies” (T) – target price х480; “Yandex” (YDEX) – target price х6500; “Transneft” (TRNFP) – target price х1600; “Tatneft” (TATN) – target price х965; “Hedhunter” (HEAD) – target price х4200; “Sber” (SBER) – target price 399 (consensus forecast of the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange); LUKOIL (TATN) – target price 50 (RD) – target price (RF N) – RF 00 (RESK) – target price (14 RF ).