Renaissance Capital expects key rate of 12% by end of 2027

Analysts of Renaissance Capital predict a slowdown in the reduction of the key rate: at the end of 2026 they expect the rate to be at 13.75%, and in 2027 - 12%. This is stated in the macroeconomic industry review of the Russian Economy investment company. Waiting for a tailwind" (the material is at the disposal of "RBC Investments").

According to experts, in the baseline scenario, the Bank of Russia at the end of 2026 at a meeting in December will be able to reduce the key rate by 25 bp, to 13.75%. This will be provided that:

normalization in the fuel market will continue; “sustainable” price growth rates will decrease; the effects of rising inflation expectations of the population following the increase in utility tariffs will be limited.

Speaking about the next meeting of the Central Bank at the key rate, which will be held on October 23, analysts predict its preservation at the level of 14%.

“Preserving moderate price growth rates in “sustainable” components, normalizing inflation expectations and the absence of unpleasant surprises from fiscal policy will be necessary conditions for the continuation of the key rate reduction cycle in 2027,” Renaissance Capital said.

Therefore, the investment companies believe that the regulator will continue to adhere to cautious steps and by the end of 2027 will reduce the key rate to 12%. According to experts, the preservation of fiscal stimulus in 2027 will require the maintenance of relatively tight monetary conditions by the Bank of Russia, all other things being equal.

The Bank of Russia at the previous meeting on September 11 decided to leave the key rate unchanged at 14%. The regulator made the decision to maintain the rate for the first time since April 2025. For more than a year, the Central Bank has consistently eased monetary conditions. From June 2025 to July 2026, ten consecutive meetings were held, each of which ended with a rate reduction.

The head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina at a press conference following the meeting on the key rate said that the Board of Directors substantively considered only the preservation of the rate and did not discuss its reduction. Taking further decisions on the rate, the regulator will focus on the dynamics of inflation, inflation expectations and the balance of risks, the head of the Central Bank noted.

The September decision of the Central Bank fully coincided with market expectations. The majority of participants in the RBC consensus forecast (24 out of 30 economists) believed that the regulator would leave the rate unchanged. Only six respondents were reduced.

According to the draft of the Bank of Russia “The main directions of the unified state monetary policy for 2027 and the period 2028 and 2029”, the regulator in the baseline scenario in 2027 expects the average key rate at 10.5-12.5%. The baseline scenario is based on the most probable, from the point of view of the Central Bank, prerequisites for the development of the economic situation in the world and Russia.