What will happen to Sber shares after the attack on the data center

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What happened? Sberbank reported an attack on the data center

On Wednesday, October 14, it became known about the attack of APU drones on the data center of Sberbank in the Saratov region. “We confirm the attack. All systems of the bank are working normally. None of the employees was injured, — said in the comments of the first Deputy Chairman of the Board Alexander Vedyakhin, received in RBC.

At the Moscow Exchange on Wednesday, ordinary shares of Sberbank at a minimum lost 1%, to е284.28 per share, and preferred shares fell by 1.04%, to 285 per share. The company's shares were trading in the red against the background of a slight increase in the Mosbirzhi index.

Why shares of Sberbank decreased

The decrease in quotations of “Sbera” after the report of an attack on the data center was more emotional in nature, believes the investment director of “UK Rencap” Ilya Golubov. In his opinion, this news will not fundamentally affect the shares of Sberbank, since the overall large geopolitical premium in the Russian stock market is already present, it is taken into account in the value of the shares.

Alfa-Investments also believes that the pressure on Sberbank shares was rather a reaction of bidders to the news background, and the fundamental picture has not changed and there are no significant consequences for business. According to experts, even if restoration work is needed, the costs are unlikely to be critical against the background of the bank’s profit of 1.5 trillion over the nine months. Analysts maintained a positive long-term view of Sberbank shares.

After the fall on Wednesday morning, Sbera shares slowed down the pace of decline, which was facilitated by the statements of the bank itself about the absence of serious consequences of the attack, and the general growth in the stock market, Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global, drew the attention of the bank. The reliability of Sberbank’s operations is one of the strongest in Russia. Sberbank has several data centers, and the attacked data center in Balakovo was not one of the most important – key transaction flows passed through other nodes, and through this data center were mainly some regional payments and processed regional services, the expert said. Natalia Milchakova also noted that Sberbank has its own data center in Kazakhstan, so if necessary, transaction flows can be switched to a foreign data center.

Nevertheless, Valery Popova, a senior analyst at the Rikom-Trust investment company, does not exclude that now not only the classic set of factors – the rate, profit, dividends – will be laid in the pricing model of Sberbank shares, but also the premium for operational and infrastructure risk. “Any reports of cyber attacks, data center incidents, or even information security drills can now cause short-term price swings — even if there is no real damage,” she warned. The market has become more attentive to details about redundancy, geographic distribution of capacity and disaster recovery plans, the expert added.

Vector Capital also believes that the risks associated with attacks on data centers by Russian companies should not be underestimated. The strike on the data center "Sbera" did not lead to failures in the work of the bank, most likely due to the fact that the facility has not yet been fully commissioned and functioned only partially, suggested the chief analyst for financial markets IK "Vector Capital" Alexei Golovinov.

What will happen to Sberbank shares after the attack on the data center

Given the forecast dividend of "Sbera" and the current value of the shares, they look attractive, Ilya Golubov believes. In his opinion, given the general discount for the risk of the Russian market, there is no need to overestimate Sberbank down. Even in the case of a negative scenario, the expert does not expect Sberbank’s quotations to fall below 250 per share, and in the absence of a significant change in the current situation, the price of securities may rise above 300 by the end of the year or early 2027. However, for the growth of Sber’s shares above the е400 mark, positive geopolitical news will be needed, believes the expert of the Criminal Code RenCap.

Freedom Global admitted that ordinary and preferred shares of Sberbank will gradually decline until the end of this week, as the market will play back the increased infrastructure risks for these securities. The investment company allowed a decrease in quotations of ordinary shares of Sber in the area of 284.5-285. The growth of securities from these levels can contribute to positive news – for example, the financial results of the Bank under IFRS for the third quarter (their publication is scheduled in late October).

If there are no new attacks on the infrastructure of Sber, Sberbank’s shares may push up and reach the level of 290-300 per share during November. We do not plan to change the target price of 340 per ordinary share of Sberbank. However, a decrease in our paper rating due to increased risks is not excluded, said Natalia Milchakova.

In the long term, the dynamics of Sberbank’s shares will depend not on the incident with the data center, but on fundamental indicators and general sentiment in the stock market, as well as in the situation in the economy, according to Ricom Trust. On the horizon of 12 months, the value of ordinary shares of Sberbank may be in the range of е300-340 – but this is a forecast under a favorable scenario, and not a guarantee, said Valeria Popova. If macroeconomics deteriorates or new risks emerge, including infrastructure risks, the price range could shift downward. If the bank shows strong results and strengthens the stability of the IT infrastructure, it is possible to go beyond the upper limit of this range.

In general, the business of Sberbank is financially stable, the company is valued cheaply in terms of multipliers, said Artem Autlev, an analyst at Ingosstrakh-Investments. In addition, he recalled that “Sber” is a stable dividend history, the dividend yield by the end of 2026 can be about 15% of the current share price. The second half of the year may be more difficult for Sber due to the need to form an increased volume of reserves, which can put pressure on net profit. Nevertheless, according to the forecasts of Ingosstrakh-Investments, Sber’s net profit by the end of 2026 may amount to about ам1.95 trillion. The company continues to look positively at Sber’s shares and maintains its target price for 12 months at ую350 per share.

If attacks on Sber’s infrastructure continue, this could lead to a decrease in quotations, but then the entire market will fall, the expert warned. In general, Sber shares look attractive for long-term investors with an increased level of risk, paper remains one of the most stable stories on the Russian market, Artem Autlev is sure.

At the same time, Vector Capital believes that the incident worsened the assessment of Sber’s shares. “Despite the fact that the bank’s securities are the most reliable option on the market, the new introductory ones force us to reconsider our views,” Golovinov said. If the bank’s customers lose access to their funds in case of new damage to the Sber data centers, even for a short time, this may cause a sale of shares. A striking example is Yandex Bank, whose efficiency has not yet been fully restored. The scale and stability of Sber and Yandex differ, but the amount of customer funds is also different, which means that in the implementation of the worst-case scenario, the consequences for Sber may be more serious than for Yandex, the expert warned.

According to the financial statements of Sberbank under IFRS by the end of 2025, net profit for the third consecutive year updated the record and amounted to -1.705 trillion, which is 7.9% higher than the result for 2024. Net interest income of Sber for 2025 compared to 2024 increased by 18.5%, to -3.56 trillion. Return on equity (ROE) for the year fell to 22.7% after 23.4% in 2024. Net commission income decreased by 1.1% to исты842.9 billion.

In the first half of 2026, Sberbank’s net profit increased by 18.6% year-on-year to 1.019 trillion with a return on capital of 24.2%. Earlier, the head of Sberbank German Gref reported that in 2026 the bank plans to earn more than in the previous year, as well as pay a record dividend for 2026.

The main shareholder of Sbera is the state: from 2020 it owns 50% plus one share of the bank. The remaining securities are in free float and are concentrated in the hands of legal entities and private investors.