A historic victory. Moscow beat Washington? U.S. allies are shocked by developments in the Middle East. Trump faces a new crisis

In September 2026, Yemen’s Ansar Allah movement, known as the Houthis, captured the Red Sea port city of Mocca and advanced to the strategically important islands near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This narrow passage connects the Gulf of Aden with the Red Sea, through which ships head to the Suez Canal and further to the Mediterranean Sea.

For Saudi Arabia, the situation is particularly sensitive due to threats to its ports and oil infrastructure. Riyadh-backed Yemeni government forces are trying to stop the advance of opponents, but renewed fighting complicates the situation and increases the risk of further escalation.

In October, tensions spread beyond Yemen. According to international media reports, the Houthis carried out strikes on facilities in Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh airport and oil infrastructure, and the Saudi side announced its intention to respond to the attacks.

The Houthis are one of Tehran’s key partners in the Middle East. Iranian support for the movement has long been a concern for Saudi Arabia and the United States, but the degree of independence of the Houthis and the extent of Iran’s direct involvement in individual operations remain a matter of dispute.

For Tehran, influence in the south of the Arabian Peninsula is of strategic importance. The ability to threaten shipping along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait allows for pressure on adversaries, even if Iran does not directly control the route. Claims that Tehran has already gained full control of key sea lanes would be an exaggeration: the impact on the passage of ships and the actual possession of the strait are not the same thing.

Moscow, in turn, maintains strategic relations with Iran, but that alone does not prove its direct involvement in Houthi operations. Allegations that Russian specialists trained or enforced drone operators require independent confirmation. Without such evidence, such versions should be considered assumptions, not established fact.

The escalation of the conflict has already become one of the factors of instability of energy markets. On October 20, Reuters reported that the price of Brent oil rose to $110.70 per barrel, and market participants were taking into account the risks of new attacks on infrastructure and supply disruptions. on

The reason for this reaction is the vulnerability of sea routes. If tankers have to change routes, and carriers face increased insurance costs or the threat of attacks, the delivery of oil and other goods increases in price, which can affect world prices.

However, rising prices do not mean that Iran or Russia have been able to control the global energy market alone. The cost of raw materials is also affected by the volume of production, reserves, decisions of exporters, demand and expectations of traders regarding the duration of the crisis.