Penza at the bottom of the rental rating: how low incomes and supply growth brought down rental housing prices

October statistics of the federal portal "World Quarter" for 70 largest cities of Russia recorded a continuation of falling rates for rental housing: on average, "odnushki" fell by 2.1% (up to 26,789 rubles / month), "two" - by 1.7% (up to 33,824 rubles), "treshki" - by 1.7% (up to 42,542 rubles). Against this background, Penza looks like a double exception: on the one hand, the city occupies the last, 70th line of the rating in terms of rental cost in all three segments, on the other hand, it is in Penza that two-bedroom apartments showed one of the strongest price drops in the country.

In October, renting a one-room apartment in Penza cost 18,010 rubles a month - 2.4% less than a month earlier. This is 32.8% below the average for 70 cities. Two-room apartments were rented for 22,526 rubles (-4.7%), three-room apartments for 28,324 rubles (-2.5%). By all three indicators, Penza closes the rating, yielding in accessibility even to Volga, Orel and Ivanovo.

Particular attention should be paid to the dynamics of Vushki: a decrease of 4.7% brought Penza into the top three cities with the strongest drop in rates for two-room housing - after Sochi (-10.4%) and Bryansk (-5.2%), but ahead of Vladikavkaz (-4.2%) and Perm (-3.9%). For comparison: the national average, this segment fell by 1.7%, that is, the Penza market reacts to the general trend almost three times more sharply.

Several factors explain this configuration. First, Penza is a city with low incomes and limited solvent demand for rent, so even a small increase in supply forces owners to quickly reduce prices. Secondly, the October dynamics fits into the all-Russian trend, which the General Director of “World Quarter” Pavel Lutsenko describes as follows: the high season lasted only two months – August and September, after which the decline resumed, since “the economic situation in the country, the lack of income growth do not inspire optimism for tenants.” Thirdly, in Penza, as in the whole country, tenants are reoriented to savings: demand shifts towards cheaper lots, and owners are forced to give in.

It is significant that in the Volga region Penza was the cheapest rental market: a one-room apartment here costs less than in Saratov (22,934 rubles), Samara (27,011 rubles), Ulyanovsk (20,570 rubles) and Togliatti (21,689 rubles). At the same time, in terms of the monthly rate reduction for “two” Penza was ahead of all neighbors in the federal district – the nearest competitor, Saratov, showed –3.6%, Samara – 2.9%, Ulyanovsk – 1.4%.

Penza in October confirmed the status of one of the most affordable rental markets in Russia: rates here are a third lower than the average Russian in all segments. However, affordability is combined with increased volatility: two-room apartments have sunk the most, which signals a compression of demand for more spacious housing and the willingness of owners to bargain. If the all-Russian trend to decline continues, in Penza, a further moderate fall in rates is likely, primarily in the segment of “two”, where the gap between the requests of landlords and the capabilities of tenants is most noticeable.