Sovcombank analysts gave a forecast for dividends of Russian oil workers

Analysts of Sovcombank predicted dividends of oil and gas companies, in particular LUKOIL, Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, Tatneft, and Surgutneftegaz. This is stated in the report of the bank called “On the crest of the wave”. Oil companies, results of the first half of the year”.

The bank notes that the sector is still fundamentally undervalued. Analysts expect not only a median dividend yield of 13% or more, but also an option to significantly revaluate upwards if geopolitical risk decreases. All this remains relevant even against the background of the expected stagnation of natural indicators in extraction and processing in 2026.

1. Surgutneftegaz

Taking into account the growth of oil prices and the weakening of the ruble, analysts changed the forecast for the dividends of Surgutneftegaz for 2026. Sovcombank is considering several scenarios for the ruble exchange rate at the end of 2026 – from е80 to е94 per dollar. At the end of the year dollar exchange rate of м94, the dividend on preferred shares could be м10.5 with a dividend yield of about 26%.

Surgutneftegaz has accumulated significant liquidity reserves (the so-called “bubble”), most of which are stored in foreign currency. The financial results of Surgutneftegaz and the volume of dividends largely depend on the change in the ruble exchange rate against the dollar and the revaluation of dollar deposits. The weaker the ruble, the more expensive the company’s cup and vice versa.

Sovcombank estimates the liquidity reserves of Surgutneftegaz for 2026 at е6.2 trillion, including е4.2 trillion in foreign currency. “Taking into account the estimated ratio of foreign currency / ruble assets, we believe that the dividend is growing by more than 35 kopecks for each ruble weakening of the ruble against the dollar,” writes Egor Obyedkov, chief analyst at Sovcombank.

Depending on the rate at the end of the year, the yield on preferred shares of Surgutneftegaz for 2026 may be 13-26%, Sovcombank calculated. So, with a dollar of е80, the bank expects dividends of е5.3 per share, е84 - е6.8 per share, е87 - е7.9 per share, е90 - е9 per share, е94 - е10.5 per share.

Excluding exchange rate differences, the dividend for 2027 may amount to ых4.7 per share, but at the rate of ых90 at the end of the year, the dividend may already be ых5.7 per share (16% of the dividend yield for 2027). At the same time, the basic forecast assumes the ruble-dollar exchange rate at the level of у95 and a dividend of more than у7 (more than 17% of the dividend yield).

2. Rosneft

Dividend forecast for the first half of 2026 is 9.4 per share.

In the first half of the year, the company's net profit amounted to ,200 billion, which is 18.4% less than a year earlier. In the first half of 2025, the figure was ии245 billion. With such results, analysts predict dividends of .9.4 per share.

The dividend forecast for the second half of 2026 is more than у20 per share.

Sovcombank experts expect that the company’s net profit in the second half of 2026 may exceed ,430 billion. Among the reasons for the growth, analysts single out the start of shipments from the East Oil project and the absence of non-monetary factors that put pressure on profits in the first half of the year.

Thus, for the whole year, the dividend yield on Rosneft shares may be more than 8%.

Vostok Oil is Rosneft’s largest project, which includes Payakhskoye and Irkinskoye fields at Taimyr. It includes already developed deposits of the Vankor group and new deposits in the north of the Krasnoyarsk Territory. As stated in Rosneft, the confirmed resource base of Vostok Oil is 7 billion tons of oil. The company started the project in 2020.

In early September, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the commissioning of the Vostok Oil project in the Krasnoyarsk Territory. The main oil pipeline was launched and the first tanker was loaded.

3. LUKOIL

Dividend forecast for the first half of 2026 is у490-516 per share.

This forecast is due to good financial indicators. According to the results of the first half of the year, LUKOIL, in particular, increased EBITDA almost twice, reduced CAPEX and released working capital, thanks to which the company significantly restored its financial performance after a weak 2025. As a result, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased 1.5 times, to ся430.9 billion.

Dividend forecast for the second half of 2026 is 505 per share.

In the second half of the year, according to analysts, free cash flow can be significantly worse against the background of weaker operating cash flow and growth of the capital expenditure program, part of the costs of which can be transferred from the first half to the second, said the chief analyst of Sovcombank Egor Obyedkov.

According to Sovcombank experts, the actual free cash flow for the second half of the year may be less than 150 billion. At the same time, they believe that the dividend base will remain at more than ,300 billion, and the dividend will be ,505 per share.

In general, for the year, the company, according to analysts, can pay цию995-1021 per share with a dividend yield of 18.5-19%

4. Gazprom Neft

Estimated dividends payable in 2027 and 2028 are е168 (yields of more than 30% over two years).

Sovcombank expects to increase the ratio of payments from 65 to 75%.

According to analysts, the current debt load allows the company, with a decrease in EBITDA in 2027 or 2028 to сти850 billion, to increase even more than сти500 billion of debt, so as not to exceed the debt load in the conditional 2.0x.

This will allow paying dividends at the level of 75% over the next two years, even if free cash flow is generated at the level of about у75 billion per calendar year - at the level of profitability on free cash flow of 2%, Sovcombank explained its forecast.

5. Tatneft

The basic forecast for dividends for the second half of 2026 is ие45.1 per share (for the year, taking into account the first half of the year - ие78 per share with a yield of 13%).

In the case of a smaller payout (at 50% of IFRS earnings), the dividend may be 71 per share. A positive scenario with a payment of 75% of IFRS earnings implies a payment of 106 per share. However, analysts believe that this is not part of the company’s plans.

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