Key rate of the Central Bank, shares, bonds, ruble and oil prices: digest
The Central Bank at 13:30 MSK will announce a decision on the rate. The market puts a 14% rate in prices, but much will depend on the rhetoric of the regulator. Meanwhile, the price of Brent oil soared above $114 per barrel
Key rate
At 13:30, the Bank of Russia will announce a decision on the key rate, and at 15:00 Moscow time the press conference of the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina will begin.
The majority of participants in the consensus forecast of RBC — 27 out of 30 analysts of large banks and investment companies — expect that the regulator will again take a pause and leave the key rate unchanged. Another two assume that the Central Bank can raise the key rate by 25 bp to 14.25% per annum. One analyst believed that the Bank of Russia had all the arguments for easing monetary policy.
Experts believe that the regulator will keep the rate unchanged due to the acceleration of inflation, “hung” at an increased level of inflation expectations of the population, as well as the continuation of economic growth in the third quarter. According to the latest relevant data of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, GDP growth accelerated slightly in August to 0.8% year-on-year after 0.6% in July. Annual inflation for September was 6.35 against 6.33% in August, follows from estimates of Rosstat.
How the key rate will affect stocks, bonds, ruble
On Thursday, October 22, the index of the Moscow Exchange (IMOEX2) decreased by 0.67%, to 2431.66 points on the eve of the meeting of the Central Bank at the key rate. Additional support for the index is provided by the rising price of Brent oil, while geopolitics remains uncertain. The OFZ index (RGBI) lost 0.1%, to 111.99 points. The yuan exchange rate on the Mosbirzh fell by 0.5%, to 12,165.
On the morning of Friday, October 23, the IMOEX2 index at 8:16 MSK decreases by 0.25%, to 2441.75 points.
According to Sergey Libin, senior analyst at Gazprombank, if the rate is maintained, the reaction of the stock market is likely to be neutral or moderately negative, since maintaining the rate prolongs the period of attractiveness of fixed income instruments relative to stocks. The growth of the market is possible in the case of a rate reduction, which in the current conditions seems unlikely outcome at the next meeting, he added.
Chief analyst of Sovcombank Mikhail Vasiliev believes that the decision of the Bank of Russia has already been taken into account in the quotes of the ruble and at the moment the exchange rate will not significantly react.
As for bonds, the factor of monetary policy of the Central Bank is of paramount importance for the bond market: a high key rate and abundant auctions of the Ministry of Finance against the background of a budget deficit lead to an increase in yields (16.5%) and a fall in OFZ prices, explained Mikhail Zeltzer, an expert at BCS World Investments.
Oil prices
On Friday, October 23, the value of December futures for Brent oil on the London exchange ICE Futures at its peak increased by 5.4%, to $114.72 per barrel. The previous time above the mark of $114 per barrel, Brent crude oil was traded on May 5.
Oil prices are rising amid fears that the conflict in the Middle East may escalate. According to the NYT, the US and Israel are preparing a new operation against Iran, which may begin after the elections to the US Congress on November 3. Among the possible targets are nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure and arsenals of missiles and drones.
In addition, according to the publication, a months-long naval blockade by the United States led to the depletion of crude oil reserves on Iranian tankers in Asian waters.
Corporate events
RusHydro: operating results for the third quarter of 2026; Seligdar: operating results for the third quarter of 2026. Transneft: Board of Directors. The agenda includes the discussion of prospects for organizing export supplies of oil and oil products in the current conditions; ALROSA: Board of Directors. The agenda includes the approval of the provisions on dividend policy in a new edition. “Airplane”: RAS reporting for 9 months.
Other important developments
The implementation of the diesel deal of the Russian Federation-USA begins; Eurozone: Composite Business Activity Index (PMI) from S&P Global, October - 11:00 MSK; USA: Composite Business Activity Index (PMI) from S&P Global, October - 16:45 MSK; USA: expected inflation from the University of Michigan, October - 17:00 MSK; USA: consumer inflation expectations, October - 17:00 MSK. USA: the number of active drilling rigs from Baker Hughes - 20:00 MSK.
