Retail after the sale: which shares of the consumer sector to choose

The material is purely informative and does not contain individual investment recommendations.

Retail is cheaper - why is this a chance?

As of November 12, 2026, the index of the Moscow Exchange consumer sector lost 20.5%, the shares of key retailers (X5, Lenta, Magnit) since the beginning of the year have fallen in the range of 3-35%. The main reasons are a slowdown in inflation and a decrease in consumer activity. The key rate fell from a record 21% to 14% by July, but in September and October 23, the Bank of Russia took a pause, and the market has not yet received the momentum expected at the beginning of the year.

Since August lows of around 5,000 points, the industry index has rebounded about 15% to 5,750 points, with many of the sector's securities also rebounding markedly. But over 12 months, the index is still down 14 percent. At the same time, it should be remembered that trade as a whole gives about 11% of GDP. Over the past ten years, retail turnover has grown by an average of about 7-8% per year, and in the next five years we expect an increase of about 7% per year in nominal terms. According to our calculations, companies in the sector are estimated at an average of about 3.3 annual EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) and 5.9 annual profit (P/E) as forecast for 2026.

And when, as a result of positive news on the market, there is a reversal, the consumer sector can show outperforming dynamics due to the oversold of these securities. It is better to prepare for this in advance: to determine the strategy and appetite for risk before the securities begin to rise in price.

Product sector: Consolidation continues

Food retail accounts for just under half of all retail trade. In the next five years, this sector, as we have already noted, will grow by about 7% per year. At the same time, the market itself remains fragmented: the ten largest networks make about 46% of sales. And the leaders have the opportunity to continue to take share from independent players. In this regard, it is worth understanding how things are at the leading companies of the industry.

X5

He is the leader of the sector and the most predictable player. Last year, the company’s revenue grew by almost 20%, in 2026 we expect about 12% growth, and the updated management benchmark is now at the same level. The third quarter confirmed this: revenue added 13%, increasing to е 1.31 trillion, comparable sales increased by 7.4%, and growth at discounter Chizhik accelerated to 34.5%. EBITDA increased by 21%, the debt load remains moderate (net debt / EBITDA - 1.2). The company pays dividends twice a year. An interim dividend for nine months was declared то204 per share (yield – 8.5%), and in total in the next 12 months, according to our estimates, may reach то400 (about 17%).

"Ribbon."

The fastest growing player in food retail. In 2025, revenue increased by 24%. At the same time, the company grew both organically and through acquisition transactions of other players (“Coin”, “Rainbow Smile”, O’Key hypermarkets). In the third quarter of 2026, growth accelerated to 34%, revenue reached .359.3 billion. The strategy until 2028 assumes revenue growth of about twice, to 2.2 trillion. There are no dividends yet: money goes into development and expansion. We expect that as the purchased networks are integrated and processes are built in them, their margins will be pulled up to the level of Lenta itself, and the debt burden will decrease. According to the expected revenue growth rate for five years (about 16% per year), Lenta is the best in our sample, while it is valued no more than competitors.

"Magnet."

Revenue is growing at double-digit rates (+15% in 2025, +12.8% in the first half of 2026), but this increase is eating away at operating and financial costs. The ratio of net debt and EBITDA is 2.9, in the first half of the year the company received a net loss. Of course, there are no dividends now. However, in the coming quarters, we expect an improvement in sales dynamics and profitability against the background of a noticeable renewal of the store fund and work with the value proposition for customers. Slowing discoveries reduces capital costs and improves cash flow dynamics. But so far, this is a high-risk story.

Non-food retail: online pressure

The non-food retail market is slightly larger than the grocery one, but less structured. In 2026, it will grow by about 8% in monetary terms, the same annual average rate we expect in the next five years. The main challenge of the segment is that online trading takes traffic from offline stores. Let’s take a look at what’s going on with the biggest players in the sector.

Fix Price

The largest company in the format of fixed prices with a share in the segment of more than 90%. Revenue Fix Price has long grown noticeably slower than that of grocery chains, although in the third quarter growth accelerated to 9.1%. But comparable sales grew on average checks rather than traffic, with businesses weighed down by rising costs and competition with marketplaces. Debt load and capital costs are low, and the company pays dividends from actual profit. The Board of Directors recommended paying dividends for the nine months of 2026 in the amount of м0.1 per share, which is about 16% of the yield at current prices.

Henderson

The only significant public player in fashion-retail. In 2025, Henderson’s revenue grew by 15% due to the expansion of retail space, but growth slowed in 2026: about 4% in the first half of the year and 5% in the third quarter. Profitability under pressure from outpacing growth in operating costs. The company has a quality brand, but the recovery in growth rates should be seen in the reporting.

Online trading: the main driver of retail

Online is growing faster than the rest of the world: in the next five years, we expect an average annual increase of 16.5%, which is more than twice as fast as offline. The share of online retail is now 21.6%, and the level of 35-40% no longer looks fantastic. In 2025, marketplaces accounted for 62% of online sales, by 2030 their share will grow to 70%. The market is highly consolidated: the top 10 players give about 80% of turnover, and the two leaders - more than half. In the first half of 2026, the share of Wildberries was 34.5%, Ozon - 27.9%, Yandex Market - 5.6%.

Ozon

The only public multi-category marketplace. In the third quarter, Ozon’s revenue grew by 63%, to .421.2 billion, the turnover added 42%. The company earned .3.7 billion in net profit. And despite х30.1 billion of reserves damaged by drone attacks on 11 logistics facilities, she did not revise the forecast for the year. According to our current estimates, in 2026, turnover will grow by more than 34%, and revenue - by more than 50%. Warehouse space is growing rapidly: from 1.4 million square meters in 2022 to the expected 6.1 million square meters by the end of 2026. The second engine of the company is fintech, whose revenue in the third quarter grew by 57%.

Since 2025, the company has been distributing dividends. Ozon is now worth around five annual EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) forecasts for 2026 – just below the tech sector’s median, which it is more accurate to compare to than classic retailers. In the medium and long term, a business can cost several times more than its current capitalization.

"All Tools.ru."

It is a monocategory player specializing in tools and goods for construction and repair. In 2025, revenue of VI.ru increased by 7.5%, to году182.9 billion, for the nine months of 2026 - by 6%, in the third quarter, growth accelerated to 11%. About three-quarters of sales come from corporate customers (there are already more than 500 thousand), and this partly protects the company from competition with universal marketplaces. According to our estimates, dividends at the end of the year can amount to й10 per share (about 11% of the yield), and from November 1, 2026 to the end of 2027, quotations will support the repurchase of shares up to й500 million.

Ideas for investors

How much do companies cost

Solid Investment calculations. Ozon is more correctly compared not with classic retailers, but with technology companies: according to EV/EBITDA, it is estimated slightly below the median of the technology sector.

Here are our retail favorites to which we can apply the “buy” recommendation:

X5 is the leader of the consumer sector: stable large business and high potential dividend yield. "Lenta" - strong operating results and a course to double sales by 2028. Ozon – In the medium and long term, the company can be worth several times more than it is now.

It makes sense to watch a few more quarters for Henderson and All Instruments.ru: the business is of high quality, but we need confirmation that growth is recovering. Magnit and Fix Price remain issuers with increased risks.

We do not recommend trying to “catch the bottom” with one purchase: it is more reasonable to gain a position in the sector in parts. X5 can become a protective basis with dividends, Lenta adds a bet on growth, and Ozon is better to keep a smaller share: the potential here is the highest, but so is volatility.

It is worth keeping in mind the nearest temporary reference points: the meeting of the Bank of Russia at the rate on December 18 and the reporting for the fourth quarter. And, of course, take risks into account: it can be a long period of high rates, a slow recovery in consumer activity, and long-term outstripping growth in operating costs, damage to warehouse infrastructure, and new regulation.