Scientists have estimated the number of deaths from heat waves in Europe at 50,000.

The summer heat wave in 2026 could have caused 50,391 deaths in European cities, up 71% from the previous high for the same sample recorded in 2022. This is reported by the Financial Times (FT) and Associated Press (AP) with reference to the results of a new study published in the scientific journal Nature Health.

The researchers modeled heat-related deaths across age groups in 854 cities across the EU, UK, Norway and Switzerland between June and August. The analysis covers the territories where about 40% of the population of the studied countries lives. The calculations used temperature data and the historical relationship between heat and mortality.

Of the total deaths, 32,619 – nearly two-thirds – were attributed to additional warming caused by human activities, most notably the burning of coal, oil and gas. Most deaths from the heat, according to calculations, accounted for Italy, France, Spain and Germany.

About a third of the deaths occurred in the heat wave from June 17 to July 1, when temperatures exceeded the norm by 5.3 °C, co-author of the work, biostatistician at Imperial College London Garifallos Constantinoudis told AP.

“Across much of Western and Northern Europe, our infrastructure simply isn’t designed for the temperatures we’re currently seeing because of human-induced warming,” said Clare Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College. According to her, in some European cities this summer, temperatures exceeded the norm by 12 ° C.

However, the authors clarified that the assessment is incomplete: it does not take into account the May heat wave and the population outside the studied urban areas. A previous analysis of the same group for 2000-2025 was published in the journal in October: according to it, the maximum number of heat-related deaths in this sample was 29,480 in the summer of 2022.

Most of these deaths do not occur directly from heatstroke, the FT notes. Heat increases the load on the body and the risk of heart attacks, strokes and respiratory failure. Elderly people, children and people with chronic diseases are particularly vulnerable. "Heat is a silent killer," said co-author Malcolm Mistry, associate professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, noting that related deaths often go unaccounted for.