Solid Investments gave a forecast for the ruble, the Central Bank rate and the stock market

Solid Investments presented a forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026. Experts expect the Central Bank to continue the pause in the cycle of reducing the key rate, consider two scenarios for the ruble exchange rate and updated recommendations for Russian shares.

Dmitry Donetsky, Head of Solid Investments Trust Management Department, held a strategic webinar “Found Market 2026: Results of 9 Months”, where he presented his expectations for the key rate, the ruble exchange rate and the Russian stock market. RBC Investments followed the webinar.

Key rate forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026

Solid Investments expects the continuation of the pause in the cycle of reducing the key rate of the Bank of Russia - according to the baseline scenario of the company, it will remain at 14% per annum until the end of 2026. After its completion, the regulator can continue easing monetary policy in small steps of 0.25 percentage points.

One of the main factors preventing a faster rate cut remains the federal budget deficit. Increased current and future government spending creates additional inflationary pressures and limits the Bank of Russia’s ability to ease monetary policy.

According to Dmitry Donetsk, the budget policy may lead to a revision of the forecasts of the Bank of Russia. At the meeting on October 23, the regulator for the second time in a row kept the key rate at 14% and raised the forecast of its average value for 2027 from 10.5-12.5% to 12.5-13.5%. The revision reflects the need for a longer period of tight monetary policy amid continuing inflationary pressures. Solid Investments expects that on the horizon of three years, the key rate will gradually approach 10%.

The material is purely informative and does not contain individual investment recommendations.

Forecast for the ruble exchange rate at the end of 2026

Dmitry Donetsky considers two scenarios for the ruble exchange rate, which depend primarily on the further dynamics of imports and foreign trade flows.

The first scenario involves the restoration of the import structure. According to this forecast, the average annual dollar exchange rate by the end of 2026 will be 81, and by the end of the year may rise to 95. In 2027, the average exchange rate is forecast at .103 per dollar. The second scenario is the preservation of the new structure of foreign trade. In this case, the average annual dollar exchange rate by the end of 2026 will be 79, and by the end of the year it is expected at 83. In 2027, the average exchange rate could be .85 per dollar.

Thus, Solid Investments expects different dynamics of the ruble depending on imports. When returning to the previous structure of foreign trade, the weakening of the national currency will be more significant, while maintaining the new structure will allow the ruble to remain relatively stable.

What will happen to the stock market in the fourth quarter of 2026

Solid Investments considers three scenarios for the development of the Russian economy: recovery, stagnation and crisis. Each of them assumes different dynamics of the key rate, the ruble exchange rate and the stock market.

The recovery scenario envisages the reduction of sanctions pressure, the resumption of trade with Western countries, the end of the active phase of the confrontation and a slowdown in the growth of public spending. In this case, conditions are created for normalization of inflation, reduction of the key rate and growth of the Russian stock market. The scenario of stagnation involves the continuation of sanctions pressure, the persistence of geopolitical tensions, inflation above 4% and a mild recession. In this scenario, Russian stocks may remain under pressure. The crisis scenario is associated with increased sanctions, geopolitical tensions and a further increase in government spending. It implies an acceleration of inflation above 10% and a recession of the economy, which creates additional risks for the stock market.

When choosing shares in Solid Investments, it is recommended to take into account not only macroeconomic scenarios, but also the financial results of individual companies, dividend policy and industry prospects.

Which industries and stocks look most promising in the fourth quarter of 2026

The most attractive sector of the Russian stock market in Solid Investments is considered oil and gas. Ruble oil prices reached spring 2022 levels, the cost of LNG is at local highs, and the weakening of the ruble further supports exporters. LUKOIL, Gazprom Neft, TATNEFT and NOVATEK are recommended for purchase. Gazprom was also named as a potential beneficiary of improving the geopolitical situation, along with Novatek.

In ferrous metallurgy, the decline has stopped, and the rise in steel prices may indicate the beginning of a new cycle. MMK is recommended for purchase, according to NLMK, the recommendation is “hold / buy”, for Severstal and Raspadskaya – “hold”, for Mechel – “sell”. In non-ferrous metallurgy, the most attractive long-term idea is MMC Norilsk Nickel. For the shares of PhosAgro and Akron, the “hold/sell” recommendation is due to the high current valuation of the securities.

In the banking sector, Sberbank, T-Technologies and Dom.RF remain favorites with the recommendation to buy. According to Sovcombank, VTB and MTS Bank, it is recommended to hold shares with the possibility of small purchases.

In the consumer sector, the X5 remains the most attractive paper due to its dividend potential. Payments of about .150 per share are expected in January 2027. For Novabev Group, the Vinlab IPO may become a potential driver.

In the agricultural sector for RusAgro and Cherkizovo, the recommendation “keep” remains. Among the promising ideas, Inarctica stands out, which restores production volumes.

In the IT sector, there is a revival of demand from customers. The most interesting to purchase are Group Positive, Headhunter and Ozon. According to Yandex and Astra, the recommendation is “hold”, according to CIAN – “hold/buy”.

In health care, Mother and Child remains a favorite thanks to business growth and dividend policy. The target share price is 1650-1680.

In the electric power industry, electric grid companies look the most stable. Solid Investments allows small positions in Lenenergo’s preferred shares and Rosseti Centre and the Volga region. In the transport sector, according to NCSP, Transneft and Sovcomflot, the “hold/buy” recommendation remains.

Top 10 most promising shares for the fourth quarter of 2026 according to Solid Investments

TATNEFT is one of the main beneficiaries of high oil prices and a weakening ruble.

LUKOIL – the attractiveness of the company is supported by high ruble oil prices and the weakening of the national currency.

Russia is one of the most interesting dividend stories of the banking sector. According to the dividend policy, the company directs 50% of net profit under IFRS for payments.

Over the past five years, the company has doubled the amount of dividends paid.

The X5 is a consumer favorite due to its dividend potential. Dividend payments are expected in January 2027.

Inarctica is a promising company in the agricultural sector. The attractiveness of the securities is related to the current share price and the expected increase in production volumes in the medium term.

Positive Group – the company demonstrates strong financial results and works to improve profitability by optimizing operating costs.

“Hedhunter” – potential drivers of share growth remain buybacks and high expected dividend yield.

“Mother and Child” – the company is in a growth phase, with current quotes retaining the potential to increase to the target range зе1650-1680.

Lenenergo - the attractiveness of preferred shares is determined by the current valuation and stable dividend payments.

Which bonds to choose for investors

For conservative investors who prefer fixed income instruments, Solid Investments allocates corporate bonds with a monthly coupon payment.

Among the interesting issuers named "Seligdar", AFK "Sistema", "Mail of Russia" and "Softline". The yield (body growth + coupon) of such bonds can reach 20% per annum.