Car dealerships need to sell 400 thousand cars: overcrowded warehouses will postpone the rise in price of cars until spring

On the first day of January, prices will not go up. Car dealerships will need time to implement the leftovers in warehouses. This was told by the General Director of the company “My Auto rental” Dmitry Matveev.

According to the information shared by AUTOSTAT, 350-400 thousand new cars have accumulated in Russia, and this volume will last until approximately spring. Only then will the price tags go up. But it is important to understand that an increase in the recycling fee does not equal an automatic increase in the price of cars in the cabin by exactly the same amount. The final prices are formed taking into account the exchange rate, the cost of delivery and the level of demand, which means that it is impossible to guess the exact cost in advance.

Car sellers are likely to repeat the scenario of 2026: stretch the rise in price in time, not to scare buyers. The market will feel the effects of new tariff rates closer to spring. In March, the sale of last year's residues will be completed and the delivery of new batches of cars will begin. From January 1, 2027, the recycling fee will increase, and prices for some cars will rise by an average of 75-300 thousand rubles. This increase of 10-20% is calculated not from the market value, but from the current amount of payment.

The most noticeable price jump is expected from foreign novelties with powerful engines and cars that came to us on parallel imports - here the scrap "eats" a significant part of the cost. Prices will also be raised for localized cars. The weakest price growth expects cars produced in Russia: VAZ, Tenet, Haval, BAIC, Jaecoo and Moskvich. As a result, all participants in the industry will “transfer” the increased costs to the final cost of products.

The secondary market will react to the changes last. The situation with new cars will inevitably affect the cost of cars with mileage at the age of three to five years. Owners of popular used cars, focusing on offers in dealerships, will begin to put higher prices. Most significantly, Chinese crossovers with low mileage and rare foreign models will rise in price.

How demand will change before the New Year

The introduction of a commercial recycling fee for vehicles above 160 horsepower has already changed the situation in the automotive market. Import price tags have soared by a quarter or even half, so consumers are shifting their priorities: they no longer care about prestige and convenience, but about economy and practicality.

Some buyers will try to buy cars before winter, and the end of this year may turn into a period of excitement. According to experts, private individuals and legal entities from October to December 2026 import to Russia 100-150 thousand cars in excess of the planned deliveries. Those who do not have time to make a purchase before the January increase will switch to the secondary market, which will lead to a redistribution of demand.

What awaits the market in 2027

Vehicles with a capacity of more than 160 horsepower, coming on parallel imports, will face a sharp increase in the recycling fee compared to current values. This will lead to a fall in the profitability of importing such machines, and sales in this segment will be reduced by 25-33%.

Dealers will be forced to cut portfolios. First of all, Chinese stamps that do not have local production will disappear from them. The reasons are simple:

Price. Cars assembled in Russia are not so expensive, and consumers are not ready to buy imports from China at a large margin.

Profitability. The market is unstable, and during periods of falling sales, sellers leave only those brands that generate income.

Any crisis weeds out those who are weaker. Localization is no longer just an option, but a necessity for business preservation. Leading market players will do everything to resist, and, presumably, will launch versions with low-power engines exclusively for the Russian market.

What buyers should do

There is no sense in rushing to buy a machine with a capacity of up to 160 horsepower, fully meeting the requirements for preferential personal import. But if you are planning to buy a powerful car, you need to act quickly.

The amount of payment depends on the year of transfer of the recycling fee, and not on the date of signing the contract. To maintain the current tariff, you need to order a foreign novelty and make an immediate payment - this step is mandatory so that customs clearance and payment of the scrap collection are completed before the end of 2026.