The FT spoke about the risks and benefits of the “Musk adventure” of $ 3.6 trillion

A combination of Tesla and SpaceX could create a company worth about $3.6 trillion, but will face shareholder concerns about Elon Musk's influence and regulatory scrutiny. The advantages and risks of this “adventure” were assessed by the Financial Times (FT), citing investors, lawyers and analysts.

On October 20, Musk revealed that the two companies had set up special committees of independent directors to study a possible merger. He called the merger “a good idea,” but stressed that the terms have not yet been agreed and there are no guarantees of a deal. The businessman himself said that due to a conflict of interest he could not participate in discussions.

One of the advantages of the merger may be the elimination of questions about the distribution of attention and resources Musk between his companies, the newspaper writes. “He’s now spending part of his time at Tesla and part of his time at SpaceX, and shareholders can’t figure out where most of his energy or money is going,” a Tesla investor told the paper.

An interlocutor close to the automaker pointed to the already existing cooperation of the companies - from the sports car Roadster to the development of materials, fuel and production technologies. According to him, the merger will create a “vertically integrated company” that will connect computing power with the application of AI in physical devices.

Companies are already connected and financially connected. According to the FT, SpaceX acquired from Tesla battery systems Megapack and cars Cybertruck for almost $ 1 billion. In addition, Tesla became a shareholder of SpaceX after its $2 billion investment in xAI turned into a stake in the space company when combining these structures.

According to analysts gathered by Visible Alpha, the total revenue of Tesla and SpaceX in 2026 will be $ 153 billion. At the same time, their total free cash flow is expected to be negative – at least minus $54 billion against the background of spending on AI infrastructure, chip production and rockets. The $3.6 trillion valuation reflects the current value of the companies, not the agreed deal price.

The merger could also strengthen Musk's control over Tesla, the paper notes. At SpaceX, he commands about 84% of the vote thanks to elevated shares, while at Tesla, he commands about 20%. To approve the deal, the automaker will need the support of a majority of all shares, not just voting shares.

The FT surveyed experts believe that companies will have to build negotiations and approval procedures to remove concerns about the advantages of one party at the expense of the other. University of Colorado corporate law professor Anne Lipton noted that the legislation in Texas, where Tesla and SpaceX moved registration, makes it difficult to challenge the actions of management. The mere fact of a conflict of interest is not enough: shareholders will need to prove, for example, fraud, willful misconduct or knowing violation of the law.

Another hurdle for Musk is agreeing a merger outside the US. According to lawyers, the deal will almost certainly need approval in the EU, Britain and China. The latest market brought Tesla $21 billion in revenue last year, about 22 percent of the total. Shanghai is home to its largest automobile factory, while SpaceX fulfills U.S. defense orders and manufactures Starshield military satellites.

Analysts at JPMorgan warned that Chinese approval could become particularly difficult due to national security issues. Among the possible options, they called the separation of the Chinese business of Tesla or the transfer of control over it to a Chinese consortium. In this case, the automaker could receive royalties for the brand and autonomous driving technology.

The interlocutor of the FT, close to Tesla, believes it is important to complete the merger before the end of the presidential term of Donald Trump in 2029. “This deal will take place. But not as soon as everyone thinks, he said.

SpaceX has already announced the acquisition of developer Grok — the company xAI in February 2026. Musk explained the merger with plans to combine AI, rocket technology and satellite communications, as well as create data centers in space.

In July, The Wall Street Journal, citing sources, reported that Tesla is considering the sale of the Chinese unit among the options for preparing for a possible merger with SpaceX. At the same time, Musk called information about plans to sell the Chinese division of Tesla “absurdly fake news”. "It never came up even in a discussion," the entrepreneur said.

Musk in June became the first in the history of a trillionaire after the release of SpaceX on the IPO, but 12 days later lost this status. In October, his fortune crossed the $1 trillion mark several times. However, on October 13, amid a fall in SpaceX shares, the entrepreneur’s capital fell to $982.9 billion, according to Forbes. It now stands at $925 billion.