Expert RA predicts increased number of defaults in 2027

In 2027, the number of defaults in the bond market will remain elevated. At the same time, the risks of implementing scenarios that can have larger consequences for the market are growing. This opinion was expressed by experts of the rating agency Expert RA in its “Debt Market Review 2026-2027”.

The authors of the document warned that next year could be realized “delayed effect” from unfavorable economic conditions of 2025-2026, including high borrowing costs, increasing popularity of delays and delays in payments, weak growth rates of the economy, investment and industrial production indices, reduction of corporate profits. “There is also a risk of refinancing, given the growth of planned debt repayments in 2027,” the review said.

In the top 5 most exposed industries in 2027, the agency included:

wholesale trade, agriculture and agriculture, construction and development, leasing and leasing, heavy industry.

According to Expert RA estimates, since the beginning of the year and as of September 30, 2026, 33 bond issuers were allowed to default on the bond market for the first time.

For comparison, for the whole of 2025, 24 bond issuers admitted technical default for the first time, and in 2024 - 11 issuers.

Risks are concentrated in the VDO segment

In 2027, the concentration of default events will remain in the VDO segment, as it happens now, Expert RA emphasizes. According to the agency, more than 80% of companies that defaulted during the nine months of 2026 had a rating below BB+ or did not have a valid credit rating.

In 2027, about 3% of bond issuers could default. On the scale of the value of the bond market, the amount of defaults will not exceed 1%, which does not create systemic risks for the Russian economy. At the same time, we note an increase in the risks of scenarios that may have larger market implications, including those related to black swans. However, we do not expect the total number of issuers that go into initial default to exceed 25 companies.

Interest in the bond market will continue

Expert RA still sees the prerequisites for an increase in the inflow of private investors to the bond market, taking into account the attractiveness of yield levels in comparison with bank deposit rates.

According to the agency’s calculations, the spreads in yields between deposits with a term of one year and bonds with an AAA-AA rating widened throughout 2026, while in the third quarter the spread widened to an average of 320 against 250-270 bp in the first and second quarters of 2026.

“Higher bond rates strengthen the competitiveness of this type of savings and provide the basis for continued inflows of investors into the debt market. The inflow of liquidity of investors will support the bond market and its issuers in the absence of a scenario of sharp market volatility, Expert RA believes.

For the first three quarters of 2026, the share of defaults in the market amounted to 0.08% against 0.045 percent for the same period last year, follows from the data of the Bank of Russia.

Corporate bonds accounted for 96% of defaults. The main contribution was made by large defaults on the repayment of the obligations of individual issuers, which had previously committed violations on other issues.