Today’s sales are only a basic scenario for preserving the country’s car fleet
The domestic automotive market, its realities and prospects are one of the imperishable topics that we cover in the framework of the Assembly of Motorists. The current fleet of passenger cars in Russia is about 50 million units. This is relatively small – 333 cars per 1000 inhabitants. For comparison, in Europe, this figure is 550, and in the United States – about 800 cars. This shows the potential for growth in the domestic market.
Why are we selling an average of 1.3 million cars? This level is formed more “in spite” than “thanks”. It is 1.3-1.5 million cars (about 3% of the fleet) that physically cease to exist on the market annually (due to old age, accidents, etc.). Thus, current sales are only the baseline scenario for preserving the park. Simple mathematical models show that to maintain a healthy age structure and fleet growth, it is necessary to sell about 3 million cars a year. There is definitely a potential of 3 million.
And theoretically, the domestic automotive industry is ready to produce up to 3 million cars annually. This is despite the fact that it experienced a painful transformation 4 years ago, when the world’s leading manufacturers left (many had their modern production facilities in Russia). But over the years, almost all production has found new (Russian) owners and restarted. But at the same time, only a little more than 800 thousand vehicles were assembled at all our plants in 2025 (passenger cars – 700,000, light commercial vehicles – 80,000, trucks – 30,000, buses – 10,000). And that’s not because factories can’t – demand is small. With an average cost of a new car of 3.5 million rubles, potential buyers throughout the country are recruited only about 1.5 million. There is competition from foreign manufacturers. The latter, by the way, try to cut off, regularly increasing the scrap collection, but they do not give up.
By the way, in the Strategy for the development of the automotive industry until 2035, which the head of government recently signed, it is honestly recorded that it is possible to achieve the figure of almost 3 million cars assembled in Russia only if a number of macroeconomic conditions are met. The authors honestly list them: annual GDP growth of 2% or more, stabilization of the national currency, easing of monetary policy with a decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank to 7.5% (and below), as well as outpacing the growth of real incomes of the population relative to the overall rate of economic development.
Of course, I am an optimist, but so far I do not see any prerequisites for achieving such indicators. But the fact that in the passenger segment until 2035, a quarter of the output will fall on electric cars and hybrids – I believe. First, this is a global trend, and we are here in a stream (albeit with a slight delay). Secondly, the fuel crisis has spurred interest in NEVs, and today their share in the market of new passenger cars has reached an unprecedented 10%, and the share of “clean trains” exceeded 2%. As far as I know, now for a few domestic inexpensive (relatively) electric cars and hybrids lined up: ordered car will have to wait several months. Thirdly, the network of charging stations is rapidly developing. Now there are about 10 thousand, but in the next 4 years this number should triple. So the prospects here are good.
That is why we at the Assembly of Motorists discuss the realities and prospects of the domestic automotive market, highlight the problems of the Russian automotive industry, try to find optimal solutions – together with the expert community, our readers, and even government figures. And one of the important tools for the civilized development of our automotive industry is the Assembly of Motorists award, which we are holding for the second time this year.
